Frank Hoskins and Paul Lanning are economists for a large U.S. investment advisory firm. Platinum Advisors. Hoskins and Lanning use their independent research on U.S. stocks and international stocks to provide advice for the firm's network of advisors. As the senior economist at Platinum, Hoskins is a partner in the firm and is Lanning's supervisor. Lanning has worked for Platinum for the past four years. At a lunch meeting, the two economists discuss the usefulness of economic theory, economic data, and the resulting forecasts of the global economic and stock market activity. Hoskins is investigating the growth prospects of the country of Maldavia. Maldavia is a formerly communist country with a population of 3 million located in Eastern Europe. The Maldavian government had been aggressive in instituting political reform and encouraging the growth of financial markets. However, due to a recent insider trading scandal and resulting stock market volatility, the Maldavian government is considering restrictions on further stock market growth and the establishment of a national securities regulator. Hoskins states that these developments are not encouraging for future economic growth. Lanning is examining the country of Petra. Petra is a country of 25 million located in South America and rich with natural resources including oil. The recently elected president of Petra, Carlos Basile, has announced that he would like to diversify the country's economy away from natural resources while nationalizing the oil industry. Lanning states that these changes would not be beneficial for the future growth of the Petrian economy. One of the many items they study when examining an economy or stock market is the economic information released by governments and private organizations. Hoskins and Lanning use this information to determine the effects on economic growth and the appropriate portfolio allocations to the bond and stock markets. Examining information for Maldavia, Hoskins has learned that the Maldavian private sector has embarked on an ambitious plan to increase labor productivity by purchasing more machinery for its factories. The private sector feels compelled to do this because Maldavia has historically relied too heavily on labor as the main input into production. Plotting the productivity curve for Maldavia, Hoskins states that labor productivity should increase because the productivity curve will shift upward and to the right. Lanning is examining the historical record of economic growth in Petra. He has gathered the data in Exhibit 1 to determine potential economic growth. Hoskins is also examining data for the country of Semeria. Semeria is an emerging country that has benefited from recent changes in the political environment as well as technological advances. Its economy is growing rapidly, and changes in the Semerian economy and society have resulted in more opportunities for women. The Semerian economy has experienced 17 consecutive quarters of positive growth in GDP, which is unprecedented in Semerian history. Interest rates have increased over time because businesses have been borrowing heavily to invest in new machinery and technologies. Most economists are forecasting further increases in interest rates in Semeria. It has long been Platinum's policy that its economists use long-term economic growth trends to forecast future economic growth, stock returns, and dividends in a country. Lanning is examining the economy of Tiberia. Tiberia has a population of 11 million and is located in northern Africa. Its economy is diversified, and its main exports are agricultural products and heavy machinery. The country's economy has been growing at an annual rate of 6.2% for the past ten years, in part because of technological advances in the manufacture of heavy equipment. These advances involve the use of computer-operated welding machines that have made the manufacture of heavy equipment less expensive. Lanning is worried, however, that the 6.2% GDP growth rate may not be sustainable and is considering advising Platinum's portfolio managers to decrease their portfolio allocations in the country. Before doing so, he will consult with Hoskins. The classical growth theory is most likely to predict that Tiberia's long-run future GDP per capita will: