Trend analysis is a data analysis technique used to examine project performance over time. It involves analyzing historical data to identify patterns or "trends," which helps project managers determine if performance is improving or deteriorating. By plotting data points such as cost variance (CV), schedule variance (SV), or defect counts over a timeline, a project manager can forecast future outcomes and take proactive corrective actions if the trend is unfavorable. This method is fundamental to the Monitor and Control Project Work process.

1. Project Management Institute. (2021). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Seventh Edition. Project Management Institute

Inc. Section 4.2

"Data Analysis

" describes Trend Analysis as a technique used to examine project performance over time to see if it is improving or deteriorating.

2. Project Management Institute. (2017). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Sixth Edition. Project Management Institute

Inc. Section 4.5.2.2

"Data Analysis

" states

"Trend analysis is used to forecast future performance based on past results. It looks at project performance over time to determine if performance is improving or deteriorating."

3. Kerzner

H. (2017). Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning

Scheduling

and Controlling (12th ed.). John Wiley & Sons. Chapter 13

"Project Control

" discusses trend analysis as a key controlling technique to monitor deviations from the plan over the project's life cycle. (Note: While a textbook

Kerzner is a foundational academic text in project management education and widely cited in peer-reviewed literature).