Reliability prediction is the quantitative estimation of a product's ability to function without failure. The universally accepted definition of reliability, which prediction aims to estimate, is "the probability that an item will perform its intended function for a specified interval under stated conditions." Statement II is a direct and accurate representation of this definition. It correctly identifies the core components of a reliability statement: probability, function, and time. The other statements describe related but distinct concepts.

I. The process of performance estimation: This is too general. Reliability is a specific aspect of performance (i.e., sustained performance over time), but "performance estimation" can also refer to other metrics like speed or efficiency at a single point in time.

III. The process of telling "how you can get there from here": This describes a planning, improvement, or corrective action process (a roadmap), not the act of forecasting or estimating a probability, which is the essence of prediction.

1. ASQ Quality Press: Breyfogle III

F. W. (2015). The Certified Quality Engineer Handbook (4th ed.). ASQ Quality Press. In Chapter 20

"Reliability and Maintainability

" reliability is defined as "the probability that an item will perform its intended function for a specified interval under stated conditions" (p. 367). This directly supports statement II as the core of reliability prediction.

2. Academic Publication: O'Connor

P. D. T.

& Kleyner

A. (2012). Practical Reliability Engineering (5th ed.). Wiley. Chapter 1

Section 1.1

defines reliability as "the probability that an item will perform a required function without failure under stated conditions for a stated period of time" (p. 1). This aligns perfectly with statement II.

3. University Courseware: University of Maryland

A. James Clark School of Engineering. ENME 489L: Reliability Engineering. The course materials define reliability as "the probability that a system will perform its intended function for a specified period of time under a given set of conditions." This standard academic definition validates statement II.