1. Adobe Premiere Pro User Guide
"Add clips to sequences" section. Under the subsection "Replace a clip in a sequence
" the documentation states: "If no clip is selected in the Timeline panel
Premiere Pro replaces the clip at the playhead on the targeted track." This directly supports the logic that the edit is contingent on a clip being present at the playhead. (Source: Adobe HelpX
Premiere Pro User Guide
Add clips to sequences).
2. Adobe Premiere Pro User Guide
"Drag-and-drop edits" section. This section details the various drop-zones in the Program Monitor. The "Replace" zone's function is described as replacing the contents of an existing clip in the timeline. This reinforces that its primary function is to act upon an existing clip
which
in the absence of a selection
is the one at the playhead. (Source: Adobe HelpX
Premiere Pro User Guide
Drag-and-drop edits).